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Home / Quarterly Investment & Economic Review /
May 22, 2026

Economic & Market Update: Q1 2026

  • Posted By : Veris/
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  • Under : Quarterly Investment & Economic Review, Uncategorized

The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 2% in the first quarter due to continued AI-related investments and resilient consumer spending, which increased due to demand for healthcare and financial services.1 Retail sales rose 1.7% in March,2 driven by higher energy prices from the heightened global shipping and oil supply fractures. Discretionary spending continues to be supported by higher-income households as the K-shaped economy continues and larger tax refunds due to the 2025 tax bill,3 although lower-income households are using their tax refunds to pay down debt. Consumer sentiment weakened amid the rising energy costs but has not translated to lower consumer spending yet.

This dynamic was reflected in the highly fractured equity market, where defensive sectors demonstrated stability against headwinds in technology and software. Looking ahead, volatility may rise as markets price in shifting sector leadership, potentially delayed monetary easing, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

The war in Iran has brought constantly shifting cease fires, opaque negotiations on opening the Strait of Hormuz, and resulting unstable access to energy supply for much of the globe.[4] While the United States is not dependent on oil from the region, 25-30% of the global oil supply passes through the Strait supplying much of Asia and parts of Europe. This quickly impacted not just the price of oil, but many other products derived from oil. This includes fertilizers and plastics.

Impact Investing in a Changing Global Landscape

We see a direct correlation between current global events and our core priorities as impact investors. Our commitment to sustainable practices addresses the root vulnerabilities of our global systems in three critical ways:

  • Supply Chain Resilience: Environmentally conscious clients have long prioritized reducing plastics, which are inextricably linked to fossil fuel production.
  • Agricultural Independence: By supporting regenerative agriculture, we reduce the global reliance on synthetic fertilizers—a primary byproduct of fossil fuels.
  • Energy Transition: Emphasizing fuel efficiency and the mainstream adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) directly diminishes our dependence on oil.

Market data suggests that consumers are already shifting their behavior; for instance, we are encouraged by the 51% spike in European EV sales this past March. 5

While we do not suggest that adopting impact-aligned practices would end all global conflict, we see an undeniable connection between the frequency and severity of modern wars and our collective reliance on fossil fuels. This first-quarter market and economic review aims to provide a deeper perspective on how we, as impact investors, can navigate and respond to these challenging times.

US Economic Review

US GDP grew 2.7% year-over-year in Q1, accelerating from Q4 2025, driven by increased investment in AI-related equipment and software. The economy is also supported by a stable labor market—unemployment rate was steady at 4.3% following a modest rebound in job creation in March. However, real wage growth was 0.3% as inflation offset salary gains, which will impact purchasing power as consumer prices increase.6

US GDP data from Q1 2021 to end of Q4 2025 7

The Labor Market: Stabilizing After Q4 Turbulence

After facing significant turbulence and a statistical contraction in late 2025 that was exacerbated by a government shutdown, the U.S. labor market found firmer footing in the first quarter of 2026 as job creation experienced a modest, steady rebound. The unemployment rate improved slightly, ticking down to 4.3% by the end of March 2026, recovering from its 4.4% level at year-end. Businesses remain heavily focused on retaining existing talent and maximizing productivity rather than aggressive headcount expansion.8 However, headline numbers might be masking longer duration of unemployment and lower labor force participation rates that are well below pre-pandemic norms, as discouraged workers stop looking for jobs.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

The first quarter saw a dramatic shift in inflation. The first two months of the year were characterized by stable year-over-year headline inflation at 2.4%, down from 2.7% at the end of Q4. However, by the end of March, headline CPI increased to 3.3% driven by an energy shock as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Overall energy costs increased 10.9% in a single month and 12.5% year-over-year, which accounted for almost three-fourths of the entire March CPI increase. However, higher energy costs haven’t translated into higher core inflation yet, as it increased by a mild 0.2% month-over-month.

The Fed held rates steady at a range of 3.5% – 3.75% in March and April, signaling a cautious “wait and see” approach as they weighed signs of lower, but persistently elevated, inflation, a stable labor market, and solid growth against ongoing new geopolitical uncertainties.9 New pressures of possible war-related inflation have scaled back expectations for continued rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.10

The war has reinforced vulnerability from prolonged energy shocks in other regions like Europe and Asia, which are more dependent on oil and gas from the Middle East. The longer the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the more the inflationary impact is likely to be on the upside with a likely downside impact on growth.

Market Update

The first quarter was a highly volatile period for equity and bond markets. The VIX surged nearly 69%, its biggest quarterly jump since 2020. The narrative abruptly shifted from soft landing confidence to growing macroeconomic unease.

The quarter began with continued AI-driven momentum but shifted quickly in late February and March as the war in Iran began. The geopolitical shock combined with a significant rise in oil prices due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The focus of the AI-driven boom also shifted in the first quarter to companies in software and IT services, financial services, and consumer discretionary sectors that could be negatively impacted by AI. After several years of stock returns concentrated in certain mega-cap companies, sectors like energy, healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples rallied. Value stocks, mid-cap, and small-cap performed well as rotation in the market took hold.

Stock Market Returns

Caption: Q1 2026 Index Returns, Source: eVestment and FRED 11

The Russell 1000, a US large cap index, was down 4.18% in Q1 as investors reassessed the macroeconomic environment and the sell-off in mega cap and growth stocks deepened. For perspective, this index is still up over 17.7% for the 12 months ended March 31st, 2026. Microsoft, one of the Magnificent 7 companies, was down over 23% in Q1 due to concerns about the return on investment in AI buildouts.12

However, US small-caps with strong domestic earnings were less impacted by geopolitical events and showed resilience driving positive 0.9% return. US small-caps are also less exposed to technology and software companies.

International developed markets outpaced US markets in January and February, driven by a weaker dollar, but the war in Iran hit Europe harder due to its reliance on energy imports. Surging gas and oil markets derailed the momentum, and the index returned -0.94% in Q1 but was still up 22.99% over the prior 12 months.

Emerging markets held up better than international developed markets with returns of -0.2% in the quarter and markets like Taiwan and South Korea benefited from AI related semiconductor demand earlier in the quarter.

Sector Update12

After reaching new highs in January, the S&P 500 declined for the quarter in Q1 2026 due to the Iran War and AI displacement fears. Stock sector returns rotated forcefully into the energy sector, which was up over 38% as oil prices increased exponentially due to geopolitical shock, while Big Tech slumped, down 9.1% for the quarter. The US software sub-industry dropped meaningfully due to fears that agentic AI could entirely replace software models, bringing valuations back to 2021 levels. 

Meanwhile, defensive sectors outperformed as markets repriced rate-cut expectations. The materials sector benefited from the spike in commodity prices, and utilities continued to benefit from the surge in power demand for data centers.

Despite a rough quarter for growth and software companies, the U.S. market remains highly concentrated in technology companies with international allocations providing diversification in portfolios.

S&P 500 Sector Returns as of end of Q1 2026.

Sources: eVestment, S&P Global

The top three companies still make up nearly 20% of the market weight in the S&P 500. Despite the slump, the Technology sector still accounts for 32.9% of the S&P 500, compared to just 8.4% in the MSCI World ex-US index. Meanwhile, Financials make up 26.0% of the MSCI World ex-US (vs. 12.6% in the U.S.) and Industrials comprise 18.1% (vs. 9.0% in the U.S.).

Magnificent Seven | Earnings Hold Despite Pullback

The “Magnificent Seven” stocks have dramatically outperformed the broader S&P 500 since 2021, driving most of the index’s overall returns. This sustained price dominance is fundamentally anchored by consistently superior year-over-year earnings growth compared to the remaining 493 companies.

Mag 7 stocks amplified index gains in 2023 and 2024 and are now amplifying the drawdown in Q1 2026. Mag 7 stocks fell 11% in Q1 2026 while the S&P 493 declined just 1% and accounted for 83% of the S&P 500’s entire quarterly loss. Within the group, the divergence that began in 2025 has continued into Q1. Alphabet held up best, reflecting the market’s reward for demonstrated AI monetization. Microsoft has borne the steepest losses, down roughly 28% since November, despite no fundamental change to its enterprise franchise. Nvidia is down roughly 14% even as earnings estimates have continued to rise—a clear case of multiple compression rather than deteriorating fundamentals.

Despite higher volatility and the pullback in the first quarter, their growth advantage is projected to remain robust through 2026. The Mag 7 is still projected to grow earnings at +26% in 2026, roughly double the +14% forecast for the rest of the index.

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Bond Market Summary

Similar to equity markets, bond markets were also volatile in Q1. The yield curve flattened significantly in Q1 2026 as the curve shifted higher across all maturities. Short-term rates surged the most from their end-of-2025 levels with the 2-Year rising from 3.47% to 3.79%. Long-term rates also drifted higher, with the 10-Year reaching 4.30% and the 30-Year anchoring at 4.88%.

Coming into 2026, the bond market had priced in multiple rate cuts. However, the surge in short-term yields reflects shifting Federal Reserve rate cut expectations due to resilient economic data and persistent inflation. The markets are also pricing in the impact of energy price shocks and AI-related corporate borrowing. Fed independence was also at the top of investors’ minds as they waited for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s successor.

Short-term government bonds (T-bills) held up well in the quarter, gaining almost 1%, benefiting from the higher interest rate environment. Municipal and corporate bonds stayed relatively flat in the quarter as they were largely cushioned by high starting yields, as substantial coupon income offset losses from price declines as interest rates rose. Over the prior 12 months, Munis are up over 4% and corporates more than 5%. Investment-grade corporate credit spreads widened but also saw a historic surge in issuance. Hyperscalers accounted for 11% of all issuance in Q1 compared to a historical average of 1%; with continued issuance, we could see the composition of the bond index change with concentration in the technology sector similar to the stock market.

Staying Invested Through Uncertainty

Periods of market volatility driven by geopolitical shocks are often short-lived. Looking at nine major events since 1962, the S&P 500 delivered a positive one-year return in six of nine cases, with an average return of 4.8%. The impulse to exit markets during periods of fear has, in most cases, cost investors more than the events themselves. The cost of missing the recovery has typically exceeded the cost of enduring the volatility.

When we look historically at geopolitical events and their impact on markets, we recognize that these events don’t happen in a vacuum. Co-occurrences of additional economic or political forces can impair recoveries, as was the case in the Yom Kippur War of 1973. While the war itself lasted less than twenty days, the after-effect of the OPEC oil embargo created a structural, multi-year energy supply shock with lasting economic consequences.

The positive cases

The six positive events span Cold War tensions, regional conflicts, a global pandemic, and a trade policy shock. The consistency of positive one-year outcomes across six decades and such varied economic backdrops serve as a reminder that even major and catastrophic events can have short-lived market consequences. In most cases, investors maintaining long-term equity exposure through periods of elevated uncertainty have been rewarded.

Authors

Jane Swan is a Partner, Senior Advisor, and Chief Advisory Officer at Veris, and she holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA®) designation. Bio. 

Roraj Pradhananga is a Partner and Chief Investment Officer at Veris and a Certified Investment Management Analyst (CIMA®) and Certified Public Accountant (CPA). Bio.

Sources

1 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-30/us-gdp-rose-2-in-early-2026-in-sign-of-economy-s-resilience

2  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-21/us-retail-sales-surged-in-march-in-broad-advance

3  https://institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/economic-insights/consumer-checkpoint-april-2026.pdf

4 https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/03/30/how-the-war-in-the-middle-east-is-affecting-energy-trade-and-finance

5 https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/ev-sales-soar-main-european-markets-drivers-shun-expensive-petrol-2026-04-19/

6 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm

7  U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, FRED

8 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, FRED

9  https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/fed-interest-rate-decision-april-2026.html

10 https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/fed-rate-cut-pushed-back-late-2026-war-related-inflation-risks-2026-04-22/

11 Morningstar, FRED

12 https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/31/microsofts-stock-closes-worst-quarter-since-2008-financial-crisis.html

13 Sources: Morningstar, S&P Global, MSCI

Disclaimer

The information contained herein is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as the provision of personalized investment advice, or an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy any securities. Rather, the contents including, without limitation, any forecasts and projections, simply reflect the opinions and views of the authors. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the views and opinions expressed herein will come to pass. Additionally, this document contains information derived from third party sources. Although we believe these third–party sources to be reliable, we make no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any information derived from such third-party sources and take no responsibility, therefore. Information related to the performance of certain benchmark indices is provided for illustrative purposes only as investors cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is not indicative of or a guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of all amounts invested. The information contained in this document also includes certain forward-looking statements, often characterized by words such as “believes,” “anticipates,” “could,” “plans,” “expects,” “projects,” and other similar words that indicate future possibilities. Due to known and unknown risks, other uncertainties and factors, actual results may differ materially from the expectations portrayed in such forward-looking statements.


Veris Wealth Partners has been selected as the winning firm in the Diversity in Wealth Management (Company) category of the Family Wealth Report Awards
May 13, 2025

Veris Wins Award for Diversity in Wealth Management

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  • Under : Uncategorized, Veris Wealth News

For the second year in a row, Veris Wealth Partners has been selected as the winning firm in the Diversity in Wealth Management (Company) category of the Family Wealth Report Awards. 

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Title: Q1 2025 Economic and Market update by Jane Swan and Roraj Pradhananga
May 5, 2025

Economic & Market Update: Q1 2025

  • Posted By : Veris WP/
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  • Under : Quarterly Investment & Economic Review, Uncategorized

By Jane Swan, CFA and Roraj Pradhananga, CIMA & CPA

The global economic landscape has shifted at a dizzying pace since our last update. In just three months, economists’ 12 month forward looking consensus on the probability of a U.S. recession soared from 22% in January to 65% following President Trump’s announcement of “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2.¹ After a subsequent 90-day pause on most of these tariffs, recession odds dropped to around 45%. This ongoing policy uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on markets, undermining business and investor confidence.²

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August 18, 2021

The Money Talk: Talking to Your Children About Money

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By Alison Pyott

There is no single best way to talk to your children about money, but many experts agree that a series of age-appropriate conversations are better than THE one big money talk. This includes weaving money conversations and lessons into everyday life to help your children build perspective, skills, and confidence.

Children are naturally curious and perceptive. They likely are creating assumptions and making judgments about their family’s financial situation vs. their peers. Starting a series of age-appropriate money talks early in life can help them understand what they need to know in the present while preparing them for the future.

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May 4, 2017

Uncommon Conversations: Rich and Timely

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By Patricia Farrar-Rivas, CEO

A while ago, I had a provocative conversation with two good friends: Rha Goddess, founder of Move the Crowd, an organization that supports entrepreneurial training for next generation movers and shakers, and Jessica Norwood, founder of Runway Project, aiming to solve the “friends and family” seed funding gap for African American entrepreneurs.

We talked about how many of the issues we face in our country today stem from inequality, lack of inclusion, and biased narratives around people of color. By the end of the conversation, we all recognized these types of reflective conversations are vital in moving us toward inclusivity.

We also felt compelled to create opportunities where this kind of dialogue could happen more frequently.

So Rha, Jessica and I began hosting Uncommon Conversations, a series of intimate gatherings over dinner to discuss how to reshape the prevailing cultural narratives and determine what active part impact investing can play.

Uncommon Conversations tries to bring in a range of diverse voices, including artists, investors, entrepreneurs, and community leaders. Together, over a shared meal, we explore new ideas and discuss the importance of resilient, inclusive cultures.

 

Tackling Big Issues

Our series began in Baltimore, during the 2015 Social Venture Network Gathering. We convened an amazing group of change-makers and influencers to answers questions like:

  • What is the potential of transforming culture through impact investing?
  • How do we begin to see culture as part of our strategy for impact?
  • What does a society that embraces cultural differences look like?
  • What does it mean to shift real power to the voices and experiences that shape our culture?

The words of the phenomenal author and social activist the late Grace Lee Boggs centered our conversation and provided true inspiration for the group. Grace led a life infused with critical conversations and demonstrated that they are an important thread of movement building. Guided by her extraordinary legacy, we used our time to enjoy the process of new ideas and new meanings being formed.

Next, we moved to New York and Los Angeles, where we asked guests to reflect on our responsibility to shape and mold the country’s culture. We viewed a beautiful video of Nina Simone, who talked about the role we can all play in making progress to inclusiveness. We also reviewed the work of the renowned artist, Frida Kahlo. Her story of strength in creativity is still relevant today, and it provided inspiration for the evening. Frida managed a life of complexity, while embracing the duality of self. These two cultural icons anchored our conversations as we shared ideas and reflected on these questions:

  • How will we be responsive to culture in a way that reflects the imperatives of our times?
  • Are we supporting meaningful financial and entrepreneurial lanes that open up space for the molders and shapers or are we requiring assimilation?

 

Food Is Love

Nothing illuminates culture quite like food, which was our focus for Uncommon Conversations San Francisco. Our venue for the evening was 18 Reasons, a community cooking school supporting individuals and families discovery good, healthy, affordable food. The food we eat tells the story of where we come from and where we’re going. It determines our health and how we survive. As the demand for more local, organic food increases, we can’t ignore that the people who bring us our food from factories, kitchens, and fields often can’t afford to eat the food themselves. We challenged ourselves to consider:

  • What is our responsibility to making the country’s food system equitable for workers in the industry?
  • How do we provide broad ownership and advancement opportunities in food systems?

More recently, we convened Uncommon Conversations at the Confluence Philanthropy annual gathering in New Orleans, cohosted with Dillard University’s Ray Charles program in African American Material Culture. Our conversations centered on supporting women and girls through the arts, and touched on themes including some of the controversy around artistic expression and how to keep stories alive with art. Big Chief Delcour from the Mardi Gras Indians shared his experiences as a cultural leader with us. Another artist, B Mike, stunned us with his larger than life artworks capturing African American heroes and New Orleans locals (see title image).

We feel, and have felt for a while, there has been an accelerating cultural shift cultural shift towards inclusiveness with regard to gender equality, equity, and agency for people of color. Lately, we’ve all witnessed a very quick and rapid change in the predominant narrative around this hard-fought progress. It is our belief that the underlying cultural shift towards inclusivity is still happening, and it is strong. The question we need to answer is this: “How do we shift the predominant narrative?”

 

Pressing Ahead

The richness of the Uncommon Conversations is a treat in and of itself. But our goal is for these conversations to inspire more individuals, especially impact investors. We want them to think about how they can support cultural entrepreneurs and movements. Ultimately, we want to build frameworks that integrate culture, inclusiveness, freedom, and agency into economic analyses.

We are in an unprecedented moment of change. As we explore the intersection of impact investing and culture, we deepen our collective understanding of what impact really means. We can identify new ways to disrupt our cultural norms and invest in equitable and culture shifts that are equitable and inclusive.


November 17, 2016

Analyzing The Phenomenal Growth Of Impact Investing

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By Michael Lent, Partner, CIO

US SIF: The Forum for Sustainable and Responsible Business released its 2016 Biennial Report on US Sustainable, Responsible and Impact Investing Trends, and there was much good news in it.

The report, issued on Nov. 14, found that over $8.72 trillion in assets – or one in five dollars invested under professional management in the US – are now invested using sustainable, responsible and impact investing criteria.  This total is up 69% from 2014.  There are now hundreds of investment options across all asset classes a trend that has been growing substantially over the past several decades.

This is truly remarkable, but it wasn’t so long ago that things were very different.

When I began my career, Impact investing was in its infancy.  I remember attending a Council on Foundation conference in 1995 with a dozen foundation representatives discussing what we called back then, “Socially Responsible Investing.”  Twenty-one years later, I spoke on a panel at the Mission Investors Exchange conference, presenting to several hundred foundations and close to five hundred attendees focused exclusively on impact investing.

In the intervening 20+ years, Impact Investing went mainstream. Institutional investors are incorporating ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) factors into their investment process, and traditional investment management firms are increasingly offering ESG investment options.

At the same time, companies around the globe are rapidly integrating sustainability into their core business models to increase their competitiveness, innovation and lower risks. We are moving from a time of carrot and stick approach to corporate change.  Increasingly we have sustainable companies receiving investments from impact investors.  This is a virtuous cycle and it is important to put into perspective how far we have come. We’ve come a long way.

Underlying Trends

In my view, three key trends were made abundantly clear in this report.

First is the rapidly growing interest in climate investing. More than $2.15 trillion of institutional assets apply climate change criteria.  This is a manyfold increase, and it reflects a growing awareness among large institutions about climate change risk.  Institutional investors’ increasing focused on this issue could lead companies to track their carbon output, to identify ways to lower it, and to provide innovative, low-carbon products and services.  It is one reason to have optimism about the future of the planet, despite the recent election results.  As a strong supporter of climate change solutions, we help many clients divest from carbon intensive industries and invest in other solutions.

Second is the growth of the community investing field.  The assets invested in Community Development Financial Institutions have doubled from $60 billion to $120 billion in two years.  These are the credit unions, banks and community loan funds that provide financing for critical affordable housing, social services, and small businesses in low-income communities and communities of color.  Historically, CDFIs have received most of their funding and capital from public sources or from banks and insurance companies under the Community Reinvestment Act. On a very hopeful note, private investors significantly increased their assets in community investing. There are great social, environmental and economic challenges in low-income communities. Access to capital is essential to long-term change in these communities.

Third, while a significant number of managers and investors say they are implementing ESG, it is not clear exactly what that means.  As an industry, there is definite room for improvement and transparency. Today, many managers are not specific about how they integrate ESG factors into their investment process. This vague application of ESG criteria is due to the lack of deliberate investment process. Some funds and managers want to be seen as “doing ESG investing to respond to client demand,” but are unsure of what to do.  For investors, you cannot simply pick an “SRI” fund and be satisfied that it actually has social impact. You must also understand what the manager is really doing to create impact.

Where We Go From Here

Looking ahead, I think the US SIF Trends report brings up four things we should think about:

  • While we have made great strides in offering more investment options, we still need more investment solutions across different impact themes, such as Gender Lens Investing, sustainable real assets, and on broader ownership strategies.
  • We need greater transparency from ESG managers and funds, so we can understand if they are actually having any impact. It’s not enough to say we do SRI. Investors need to know what and how managers are creating impact.
  • Investors shouldn’t underestimate the importance of finding a wealth manager or advisor who understands the impact field. There is a fair amount of complexity and a need to sort out the managers and funds that best fit your specific financial and impact goals.

The good news is that we’re making real progress in changing the way people and institutions invest.  Together, we can keep it going and bring about even more positive change.

To read Veris white papers on climate change, gender lens investing and other topics, please visit the Research section of our website.

 

Photo Credit: Ronald Tagra


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