Articles & Commentary

Against the headwinds of eleven Fed interest rate hikes, which started in March of 2022 and plateaued at 5.25%-5.5% in July of 2023, the US economy remains strong. ¹ Consumer spending withstood higher borrowing costs, persistent, but slowing, inflation, and the dwindling of pandemic era savings. 

Both the manufacturing and services purchasing manager index (PMI), which are indicators of economic resilience, were in expansionary territory as of March 2024. There was a slight deterioration in services PMI in the first quarter and consumer sentiment worsened due to higher inflation expectations, but real wage growth remains positive supporting consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of the US GDP.

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The US economy remains resilient, supported by strong retail spending and labor markets and signs of improving consumer confidence¹ and strengthening in housing markets. 

In the third quarter of 2023, GDP grew at its fastest rate in nearly two years – driven by consumer and government spending and private inventory investment.² However, we believe recent indications signal that economic growth is slowing down. The US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was in negative territory as of Q4 2023.³ ⁴  Consumer debt is also increasing,⁵ indicating that retail spending may be driven by borrowing as pandemic era savings dwindle. The 4th quarter GDP estimate, currently at 2.4%,⁶ suggests the economy has remained strong.

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