Economic & Market Update: Q1 2025
By Jane Swan, CFA and Roraj Pradhananga, CIMA & CPA
The global economic landscape has shifted at a dizzying pace since our last update. In just three months, economists’ 12 month forward looking consensus on the probability of a U.S. recession soared from 22% in January to 65% following President Trump’s announcement of “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2.¹ After a subsequent 90-day pause on most of these tariffs, recession odds dropped to around 45%. This ongoing policy uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on markets, undermining business and investor confidence.²