Economic & Market Update: Q1 2026
The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 2% in the first quarter due to continued AI-related investments and resilient consumer spending, which increased due to demand for healthcare and financial services.1 Retail sales rose 1.7% in March,2 driven by higher energy prices from the heightened global shipping and oil supply fractures. Discretionary spending continues to be supported by higher-income households as the K-shaped economy continues and larger tax refunds due to the 2025 tax bill,3 although lower-income households are using their tax refunds to pay down debt. Consumer sentiment weakened amid the rising energy costs but has not translated to lower consumer spending yet.